Pair #3623

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAHOCKEY-26-CON

Will Connecticut win the College Hockey National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEY
Entity: Connecticut
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1845

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Connecticut is the 2026 College Hockey National Championship winner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME-26MAR261330CONMSU-CON

Connecticut vs Michigan State Winner?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME
Entity: Connecticut
Expiration: 2026-03-26T20:30:00Z
Volume: 852

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Connecticut is the winner (inclusive of overtime but excluding shootouts) of the Connecticut vs Michigan State college hockey game scheduled for Mar 26, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: To win the national championship, Connecticut must win all its games. If the Connecticut vs Michigan State game on Mar 26 is a required path game (e.g., first round), winning the championship implies winning that game. However, if the bracket could be restructured or the game is not definitively on the required path, there is slight uncertainty. Assuming standard single-elimination tournament structure where this game is a necessary step, winning the championship implies winning this game. Reverse is false — winning this game doesn't guarantee the championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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