Pair #3621

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-CGAU

Will Coco Gauff win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2549

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Coco Gauff wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR26GAUMUC-GAU

Will Coco Gauff win the Gauff vs Muchova : Semifinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Coco Gauff
Expiration: 2026-03-26T17:00:00Z
Volume: 83073

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Coco Gauff wins the Gauff vs Muchova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not necessitate winning the WTA Miami semifinal — Miami Open is not a Grand Slam. And winning the Miami semifinal does not necessitate winning a Grand Slam. No logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -27.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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