Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-CBJ
Will Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 612274
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPRES-26-CBJ
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?
Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4902
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Columbus Blue Jackets wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record). A non-President's Trophy team can win the Cup, and the President's Trophy winner does not necessarily win the Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-11.06%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-15.27%
BELOW HURDLE