Pair #362

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-CBJ

Will Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 612274

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-CBJ

Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4902

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Columbus Blue Jackets wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record). A non-President's Trophy team can win the Cup, and the President's Trophy winner does not necessarily win the Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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