Pair #3616

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ASAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11887

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR26SABRYB-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs Rybakina : Semifinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-27T03:30:00Z
Volume: 5515

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs Rybakina professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not necessitate winning the WTA Miami semifinal — Miami Open is not a Grand Slam. And winning the Miami semifinal does not necessitate winning a Grand Slam. No logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -13.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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