Pair #3615

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 331372

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR26SABRYB-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs Rybakina : Semifinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-27T03:30:00Z
Volume: 5515

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs Rybakina professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning the WTA Miami semifinal are in separate tournaments. No logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.13% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue