Pair #3614

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOWOMEN-26-MUC

Will Karolina Muchova win the WTA Miami Open?

Series: KXMOWOMEN
Entity: Karolina Muchova
Expiration: 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z
Volume: 5348

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1500

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Rules

If Karolina Muchova wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR26GAUMUC-MUC

Will Karolina Muchova win the Gauff vs Muchova : Semifinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Karolina Muchova
Expiration: 2026-03-26T17:00:00Z
Volume: 49628

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karolina Muchova wins the Gauff vs Muchova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: If Muchova wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open, she must have won all matches along the way, including the semifinal against Gauff. Winning the tournament logically necessitates winning that semifinal. The reverse does not hold — winning the semifinal does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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