Pair #3613

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-MUC

Will Karolina Muchova win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Karolina Muchova
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 70032

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Karolina Muchova wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR26GAUMUC-MUC

Will Karolina Muchova win the Gauff vs Muchova : Semifinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Karolina Muchova
Expiration: 2026-03-26T17:00:00Z
Volume: 49628

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karolina Muchova wins the Gauff vs Muchova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not necessitate winning a WTA Miami semifinal match, and winning a Miami semifinal does not necessitate winning the French Open. These are separate tournaments entirely.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4700
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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