Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MHUB
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 400
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MHUB
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mark Hubbard finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mark Hubbard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 608
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mark Hubbard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:14:04Z
Reasoning: If Hubbard finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A