Pair #36

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2898

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 12452

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joao Fonseca wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:04Z

Reasoning: These are two separate tournaments. Winning one does not imply winning the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -4.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:20Z

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