Pair #359

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-PIT

Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 16352

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-PIT

Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 167058

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z

Reasoning: Winning the Metropolitan Division guarantees a playoff spot. However, making the playoffs does not require winning the division (wild card entry is possible). So division win implies playoff qualifier, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:37:45Z

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