Pair #3587

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-THOG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tom Hoge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1469

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8400

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Rules

If Tom Hoge has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-THOG

Will Tom Hoge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4860

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:13:30Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (though it makes it very likely, it is not a logical necessity — e.g., withdrawal or disqualification). And making the cut does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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