Pair #358

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-PIT

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 218056

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Pittsburgh Penguins wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-PIT

Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 16352

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z

Reasoning: A team can win the Eastern Conference Finals without winning their division (wild card teams reach the conference finals). And winning the division does not mean winning the conference finals. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 12.56% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +8.34% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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