Pair #3578

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SRYD

Will Sam Ryder lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7343

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SRYD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6717

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:13:30Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (player could collapse over remaining rounds). And finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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