Pair #356

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-PIT

Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1631418

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-PIT

Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 16352

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Metropolitan Division (a wild card team can win the Cup). Winning the Metropolitan Division does not require winning the Stanley Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -4.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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