Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-PIT
Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1631418
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-PIT
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 167058
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Pittsburgh must have made the playoffs. Winning the Cup logically necessitates qualifying for the playoffs. The reverse does not hold — making the playoffs does not guarantee winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-100.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
-104.19%
BELOW HURDLE