Pair #355

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-PIT

Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1631418

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-PIT

Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 167058

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Pittsburgh Penguins are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:51Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Pittsburgh must have made the playoffs. Winning the Cup logically necessitates qualifying for the playoffs. The reverse does not hold — making the playoffs does not guarantee winning the Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:32:03Z

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