Pair #3549

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-AEWA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will A.J. Ewart make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1927

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If A.J. Ewart has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-AEWA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will A.J. Ewart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: A.J. Ewart
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4022

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If A.J. Ewart finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:12:38Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee finishing top 20 (many players make the cut but finish outside top 20). Finishing top 20 implies making the cut, but that is B→A. Since A is makecut and B is top20, the implication runs from B to A, but B is the consequent here — no clean single-direction implication to assert with A as antecedent.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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