KXNHL-26-PIT
Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1631418
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
KXNHLEAST-26-PIT
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 218056
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:31Z
Reasoning: Pittsburgh is an Eastern Conference team. To win the Stanley Cup Finals, they must first win the Eastern Conference Finals. Winning the Cup logically necessitates having won the Eastern Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the Eastern Conference Finals means they appear in the Cup Finals but could lose.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-20.80%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-25.02%
BELOW HURDLE
Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:45:13Z