Pair #3530

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MSCH

Will Matti Schmid lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2620

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matti Schmid finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 328

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:12:18Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (could miss cut or fall back), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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