Pair #3529

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MSCH

Will Matti Schmid lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2620

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MSCH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matti Schmid finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10899

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matti Schmid finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:12:02Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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