Pair #3525

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RHOE

Will Rico Hoey lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13121

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-RHOE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Rico Hoey finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 55908

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:12:02Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (a player can fade over subsequent rounds), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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