Pair #3523

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-RCAS

Will Ricky Castillo win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 279773

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ricky Castillo wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RCAS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2637

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ricky Castillo finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:12:02Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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