Pair #3522

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-JKNA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jake Knapp finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18717

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JKNA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jake Knapp finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56501

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:12:02Z

Reasoning: Top 5 is a subset of top 20, so finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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