Pair #3511

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-NECH

Will Nicolas Echavarria lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21412

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolas Echavarria is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-NECH

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolas Echavarria
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1855

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolas Echavarria finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:11:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (can fall back significantly). Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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