Pair #3498

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MWAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matt Wallace finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1104

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MWAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matt Wallace finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1652

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:11:27Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold: finishing, say, 15th is top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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