Pair #3497

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MWAL

Will Matt Wallace win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 250610

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Matt Wallace wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MWAL

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matt Wallace finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1652

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:11:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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