Pair #3495

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MMCG

Will Max McGreevy win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25056

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MMCG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7177

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max McGreevy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:11:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold: top 20 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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