Pair #3488

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-PROD

Will Patrick Rodgers lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12574

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-PROD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1418

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate a top 20 finish, and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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