Pair #3487

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-PROD

Will Patrick Rodgers lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12574

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-PROD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5234

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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