Pair #3477

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-LHOD

Will Lee Hodges lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6964

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-LHOD

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Lee Hodges finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 327

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:10:53Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 (a player could miss the cut or fall far down the leaderboard), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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