Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-MIN
Will Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4042154
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLCENTRAL-26-MIN
Will Minnesota Wild win the NHL Central Division?
Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 28336
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Minnesota Wild win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:31Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Central Division — a team can enter the playoffs as a wild card. Winning the Central Division does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
0.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-4.22%
BELOW HURDLE