Pair #346

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-MIN

Will Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4042154

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-MIN

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 458528

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Minnesota Wild wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Minnesota (a Western Conference team) must first win the Western Conference Finals. Winning the Cup logically necessitates having won the Western Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the Western Conference Finals means they appear in the Stanley Cup Finals but they could lose.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -21.41% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -25.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T10:55:51Z

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