Pair #345

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-MIN

Will Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4042154

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-MIN

Will the Minnesota Wild win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 11018

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Minnesota Wild wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require having the best regular season record (President's Trophy). Conversely, winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -4.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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