Pair #3443

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7233

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JSMI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2281

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:53Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-20 final finish, and a top-20 finish does not require leading after R1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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