Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-MIN
Will Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4042154
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Minnesota Wild win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-MIN
Will the Minnesota Wild be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 11221
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Minnesota Wild are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:31Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Minnesota must have made the playoffs. Winning the Cup necessarily means qualifying as a playoff team. The reverse does not hold — making the playoffs does not mean winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.97%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.19%
BELOW HURDLE