Pair #343

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-CAR

Will Carolina Hurricanes win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 22617

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-CAR

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 10706

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carolina Hurricanes wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the President's Trophy (best record in the NHL) does not require winning a division — a team could have the best record while finishing second in their division (though in practice this is unlikely, wild card scenarios mean division title is not guaranteed). Conversely, winning the Metropolitan Division does not guarantee the best overall record in the NHL. Neither direction holds as a logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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