Pair #3428

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-KMIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4864

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-KMIT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keith Mitchell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6482

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keith Mitchell finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:35Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish necessarily implies a top 10 finish (5 is within 10). The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which is not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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