Pair #3411

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-WMOU

Will William Mouw lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19049

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If William Mouw is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-WMOU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will William Mouw finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1164

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If William Mouw finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:17Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (player could miss cut or fall), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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