Pair #3409

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-WMOU

Will William Mouw win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 123105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-WMOU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will William Mouw finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1164

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:01Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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