Pair #3408

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-WMOU

Will William Mouw win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 123105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-WMOU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will William Mouw finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: William Mouw
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2506

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If William Mouw finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:01Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 5 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing 2nd through 5th is top 5 but not a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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