Pair #3407

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-BHOR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Billy Horschel make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3731

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-BHOR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3734

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:01Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player can make the cut and still finish outside the top 20. A top 20 finish does imply making the cut, but note the top 20 could in theory include players who made the cut, so the reverse direction (top 20 → made cut) is logically necessary.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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