Pair #3406

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-BHOR

Will Billy Horschel lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56127

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-BHOR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Billy Horschel finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Billy Horschel
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3734

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Horschel finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:01Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 20 finish — subsequent rounds can cause a significant drop. The reverse also does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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