Pair #3400

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MHUG

Will Mackenzie Hughes lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4415

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MHUG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mackenzie Hughes finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4482

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:01Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 20 finish — a player can fall well outside the top 20 over subsequent rounds. The reverse also does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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