Pair #340

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-CAR

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1295357

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carolina Hurricanes wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-CAR

Will Carolina Hurricanes win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: Carolina Hurricanes
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 22617

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:07:11Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals does not require winning the Metropolitan Division — Carolina could have entered as a wild card team. And winning the Metropolitan Division does not mean Carolina wins the ECF. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -43.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -47.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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