Pair #3399

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MHUG

Will Mackenzie Hughes lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4415

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MHUG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mackenzie Hughes finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1750

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mackenzie Hughes finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:01Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 10 finish — a player can collapse over subsequent rounds. A top 10 finish does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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