Pair #3398

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MHUG

Will Mackenzie Hughes win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11767

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mackenzie Hughes wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MHUG

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Mackenzie Hughes finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mackenzie Hughes
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1750

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mackenzie Hughes finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:09:01Z

Reasoning: If Mackenzie Hughes wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily in the top 10. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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