Pair #3396

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-RFOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7702

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-RFOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17415

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:42Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish could be outside the top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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