Pair #3389

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RFOW

Will Rickie Fowler lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 60403

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-RFOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4271

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:42Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 10 finish — a player can lead R1 and finish outside the top 10. The reverse also does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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