Pair #3383

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 168893

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-ASMA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1519

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:24Z

Reasoning: If Smalley wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily top 5. The reverse is not true — top 5 does not guarantee a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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