Pair #3381

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 50714

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14526

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:24Z

Reasoning: If Thorbjornsen finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10. The reverse is not true — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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