Pair #3380

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18115

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14526

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:08:24Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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